RBI may go for another rate cut as GDP slows to more than 6-year low
India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has declined further to 4.5 per cent in second quarter (Q2) of the current fiscal from 5 per cent in Q1 of FY20 due to persistent slowdown in consumption, automobile sales and slump in manufacturing output. Given the fragile condition of economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may announce another rate cut in its monetary policy announcement scheduled next week.
The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) led by Governor Shaktikanta Das will meet between December 3 and December 5 to review the interest rates. Analysts expect the MPC slashing rates by 25 basis points (bps), along with a marginal cut in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for FY20.
"For the fiscal year FY20, our real GDP forecast stands at to 5.2 per cent, with risks to further downside. After 135 basis rate cut delivered by the RBI since February 2019, we expect the RBI to cut rates by an additional 25 bps in December, taking the repo rate to 4.90 per cent," said analyst at Yes Securities.
According to analyst at Geojit Financial Services, the RBI will go for another rate cut in December.
"With the GDP growth slipping to 4.5 percent, it is expected that RBI will go for the next round of rate cut in December," said Deepthi Mary Mathew, Economist at Geojit Financial Services.
The central bank's decision to go for next round of rate cut could be in sync with the government's recent measures, including a reduction in the corporate tax and promotion of credit offtake to boost economic activity amid the ongoing slowdown.
In 2019, the RBI has reduced the repo rate for the fifth consecutive time, brining rate down to 5.15 per cent, the lowest since March 2010. In June, the apex bank reduced the repo rate by 25 bps, followed by 35 bps cut in August. In October, RBI brought it further down by another 25 bps to 5.15 per cent.
RBI Files Application To Begin Bankruptcy Proceedings Against Dewan Housing
The Reserve Bank of India has filed an application to begin bankruptcy proceedings against shadow lender Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL), it said Friday.
DHFL, once one of country's top shadow lenders, owes its creditors - which include mutual funds, banks, pension funds, insurance firms and retail investors - close to Rs 1 lakh crore ($13.93 billion).
The country's shadow banking sector, a key source of credit to millions, has been plagued by a credit crunch triggered by the collapse of lending major IL&FS last year.
Central bank said earlier this month it would begin bankruptcy proceedings against DHFL, and superseded the company's board, while appointing an administrator.
Swiss Firm To Develop India's Biggest Airport Near Delhi, Outbids Adani
The Zurich Airport International AG was on Friday selected as the concessionaire for developing the Jewar airport, billed to be the biggest airport in India upon completion, officials said.
The Switzerland-headquartered company made the highest per passenger bid for the airport, outbidding competitors like Delhi International Airport Limited, Adani Enterprises, and Anchorage Infrastructure Investments Holdings Limited, the officials said.
Jewar Airport or the Noida International Greenfield Airport will come up in 5,000 hectare area when fully constructed and is estimated to cost Rs 29,560 crore, Nodal Officer for the Project, Shailendra Bhatia said.
"Zurich Airport International AG has made the highest bid for developing the Jewar airport and has been selected as the concessionaire for the airport," Mr Bhatia said.
A global tender was floated to hire a developer for the proposed airport on May 30 by the NIAL, an agency floated by the Uttar Pradesh government for managing the mega project in Gautam Buddh Nagar district.
The airport, the third in the national capital region after Delhi's Indira Gandhi International airport and Ghaziabad's Hindon airport, is touted to have six to eight runways, the most in India, when fully built, according to officials.
The first phase of the airport would be spread over 1,334 hectare and cost Rs 4,588 crore as it is expected to be completed by 2023, the officials said.
Q2 GDP growth rate to be announced today; Modi govt's worst fear may come true
The GDP growth rate for Q2 FY20 will be announced today. After a downward slide in growth for six quarters straight, the Modi government that is on a damage control mode would want the GDP growth to stabilise for Q2 of FY20. However, as per analysts, the GDP growth is likely to hit yet another low.
Rating agencies India Ratings and ICRA expect the growth numbers to be 4.7 per cent. Kotak Economic Research that estimated GDP growth to be at 5.2 per cent earlier has slashed it to 4.7 per cent.
The last time India's growth rate fell below 5 per cent was in Q2 FY13. A further dip in GDP growth rate would mark a low of 26 quarters.
Weak domestic demand and sentiment, regulatory uncertainty and concerns about the health of the non-banking financial sector are some of the reasons fuelling this downward spiral.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said in a written response to a question in Lok Sabha this month that despite the slowdown India is projected by the International Monetary Fund to be the fastest-growing G-20 nation in 2019-20.
However, India has already lost the tag of the world's fastest-growing economy to China. India posted a growth of 5.8 per cent in Q4 FY19, while China grew at over 6.4 per cent. In Q1 FY20, India grew at 5.01 per cent while China grew at 6.2 per cent. In Q2 FY20, China posted a growth rate of 6 per cent and India is expected to settle at 4.7 per cent.
While still ahead of the global growth rate of 3 per cent, India's recent GDP growth figures leave a lot to be desired.
India's swift growth is not only significant for the country but for the world economy too as India accounts for 7.7 per cent of the world GDP.
However, not all is lost. The IMF has estimated that India would regain the tag of the fastest growing economy by the end of 2020. India is expected to grow at double the pace of the world's growth rate, while China's growth is likely to be moderate.
As per IMF, while the world economy grows at 3.4 per cent in 2020, India is estimated to grow at 7 per cent and China at 5.8 per cent.
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank IPO To Open On Monday
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank or USFB will launch its initial public offer (IPO) for subscription on December 2. The public offering will be open for subscription for three days from December 2 to December 4. The bank has fixed issue price band at Rs. 36-37 per share. Ahead of the IPO, USFB raised Rs. 250 crore in a pre-IPO round earlier this month. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank has branches across 24 states and a customer base of 49 lakh as of September 30, 2019. The bank's parent microfinance lender Ujjivan Financial Services went public in 2016 after receiving an in-principle licence from the Reserve Bank of India to start a small finance bank.
Here's you need to know about the Ujjivan Small Finance Bank IPO:
The IPO of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to around Rs. 750 crore for subscription, and a portion of the issue, aggregating up to Rs. 75 crore has been made available for the eligible Ujjivan Financial Services (UFSL) shareholders on a proportionate basis.
"For this purpose, individuals and HUFs (Hindu Undivided Families) who are the public equity shareholders of UFSL as on the date of the red herring prospectus (RHP) which is, November 22, 2019 are the eligible UFSL shareholders," the bank said in a regulatory filing.
These shareholders will also get a discount of Rs. 2 per share on the final issue price.
The bank had filed its draft prospectus for the IPO on August 14 and received market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's or Sebi's approval for the issue on October 16.
The bids can be made for a minimum of 400 equity shares and in multiples of 400 equity shares thereafter.